NIFTY Weekly Update - Kedar K Murdeshwar

1st October,2011 Saturday

Nifty:Nifty closed 1.55% up from the previous close.(ie 75.50 points up).Though it made a formation of Lower top and lower bottom from the previous week,it managed to give a close above previous week.The Volumes are Continuously Falling for the last 4 weeks.

Given below are the Support & resistance levels for Next week

Nifty Support: 4792,4642 and 4526
Nifty Resistance:5059,5175 and 5326

Junior Nifty Support: 9643,9463 and 9290
Junior Nifty Resistance: 9995,10168 and 10347

Cnx Bank Support: 9193,8918 and 8670
Cnx Bank Resistance: 9716,9963 and 10238

Stocks that can be bought for next week

BEL (1534.10) Target 1560,Cummins India (414.30) Target 425,Power Grid (98.45) Buy above 99 and Target is 100,Sesa Goa (200.55) Target 208.

DOJI Formation on Weekly Chart - Kedar K Murdeshwar

1st October,2011 Saturday

Candlestick Formations on weekly Charts and its Importance

DOJI Formation:The Pattern of Indecision.If the Stock gives a close above the doji's high on the next candle the stock can rally up.

In the Given below scrips a Doji has been formed on the weekly chart.If the next week gives a close above this DOJI's High there are chances that the stock may rally.

Ackruti (190.05)

Advanta:A doji was formed in the previous week ended 23rd Sept.And the stock gave a close below the doji's low indicating Bearishness.

Asahi India (67)

Ashok Leyland (26.10)

Boshl Ltd (7051.20)

CESC (277.60)

CMC (829.55)

ELgieEquip (70.85)

GujFluoro (538.20):In fact there is a formation of Doji Spinning Tops.,Beware of this pattern.The stock can come down.

Gujrat Gas (431.05),Himmat Siede (33.50),Indswift lab (85),Infotecent (115) and NHPC (23.50)

Daily Market Update and Overview for 30th Sept 2011

29th Sept,2011 Thursday

Sensex: 16698.07 (252.05 points up)
Nifty: 5015.45 (69.55 points up)

MCX Gold: 25700 (up by 27)
INR:USD: 49.18

Dow:  11010.90
Nasdaq:  2491.58
CAC: 3012.46
Hang Seng: 18011.06
DAX: 5574.48
FTSE: 5192

Nifty was up today but may face resistance at 5046 and 5059 in intraday tomorrow.These are immediate tough resistance levels.

Nifty Gainers: JP Associate (7%),Kotak Bank (3%) and Infy (3%)
Nifty Losers: Sesa Goa (-2.22%),LT (-2.19%) and Rel Capital (-2.15%)

Overview for tomorrow (30th Sept,2011 Friday)

The Support Levels for Nifty for Tomorrow are 4937,4857 and 4809.
The Resistance levels for Nifty are 5065,5114 and 5193

Stock Recommendtations for Tomorrow are as follows

Buy HSIL.Target for Tomorrow 183 and 190
Buy Bom Dyeing.Target for Tomorrow 390
Buy Alok Textile.Target 20
Buy JP Power.Target 36
Buy Tulip.Target for Tomorrow 170

Sector impacts of fuel price hike

29th September,2011 Thursday
Sector impacts of fuel price hike

1. Oil marketing companies
Who gets to encash the price hike? It's none other than OMCs like IOC, BPCL, HPCL, who are the direct beneficiaries of the hike. The so called bad news for general public is excellent news for these companies in the short to medium term.

2. Banking and automobile companies
As fuel price hike news is a dampener for vehicle buyers (especially four wheelers), in the short run there is a decrease in the demand of luxurious and fuel inefficient vehicles. This decrease in demand in turn reduces the loan growth of banking sector

3. Alternative fuel companies
A company which produces alternative fuel sources like Indraprastha Gas Limited becomes hot favourites in such times. It's clear that conventional fuel prices are bound to increase in future; alternative fuel generating companies are going to be the winners in the long run.

4. Cement, steel companies
The sectors which are heavily dependent on transportation – and hence fuel oil -- are negatively impacted in short term especially during the rainy season as they are not able to pass on the additional cost to the customers because of reduction in demand.

WORLD HEART DAY SPECIAL - BY KEDAR K MURDESHWAR

29th Sept 2011 Thursday (World Heart Day Special)

My dear friends,I understand that the markets have become too much Volatile.Every other day we hope to see the markets up,and we find that the market falls and also erodes our wealth.(hard earned money from the stock market).

Many of us are mature enough to understand that these ups and down;s are an indispensable part of Stock market.But on the other there are many such individual traders,investors or Brokers who cant bear the loss due to their maximun exposure to stock market without proper analysis.This Financial loss leads to mental stress and many a times causes Heart Attacks (some minor,some severe and fatal).

We are in the stock market to make money and not suicide by exposing ourselves to Heart Attacks.

Today is WORLD HEART DAY! Lets vow not to take too much stress from this financial Volatility and be fit and fine.After all Health is Wealth.

Trade with caution and Trade with Proper Analysis.TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!!

HAPPY NAVRATI TO ALL INVESTORS AND TRADERS - KEDAR K MURDESHWAR

28th Sept,2011 Wednesday

TODAY'S CLOUR IS BLUE

MAY THE GODDESS BLESS U AND HELP US MAKE THE RIGHT INVESTMENTS IN THE RIGHT MANNER!

During the nine days of Navratri there is a custom of wearing different colour dress.-Sarees (Sari) and Churidhar – mainly in Gujarat and Maharashtra.

The nine Navratri colors for 2011 are

Pratipada - September 28, 2011 (Wednesday) -BLUE

Dwitiya/Tritiya - September 29 (Thursday) -YELLOW

Chaturthi - September 30 (Friday) - GREEN

Panchami - October 1 (Saturday) - GREY

Sashti - October 2 (Sunday) - ORANGE

Saptami - October 3 (Monday) -  WHITE

Ashtami - October 4 (Tuesday) - RED

Navami - October 5 (Wednesday) -PURPLE

Vijayadasami - October 6 (Thursday) - PINK

Daily Market Update and Overview for Tomorow - Kedar K Murdeshwar

28th Sept, 2011 Wednesday

Sensex: 16453.23
Nifty: 4945.90

MCX Gold: 26191 (up bt Rs 4)
INR-USD: 49.18 (down by -0.44)

Dow: 11190.69 (up 1.33%)
Nasdaq: 2546.83 (up 1.20%)
CAC: 3025..54 (up 0.07%)
Hang Seng: 18011.06 (down 0.66%)
DAX: 5632.83 (up 0.08%)

Todays Nifty Top Gainers were HCL Tech (3.43%),DLF (2.78%) and NTPC (2.35%)
Today's Top Nifty Losers were Rel Capital (-7.17%),JP associates (-5.24%) and RelInfra (-4.78%)

Tomorow's Market Overview (for 29th Sep,2011)

Nifty Support levels for Tomorow:4908,4869 and 4820
Nifty Resistance levels for Tomorow: 4995.5044 and 5083

Buy Calls for Tomorow are as Follows

Buy Amtek India.Targets for Tommorow are 136 and 140
Buy FMGoetze.Targets are 245 and 250
Buy GSPL and Targets for Tomorow are 106/107
Buy Jisljaleqs.Targets for tomorow are 156 and 158.
Buy Hcltech:Targets for Tomorow are 412 and 417

Stock Market Awards - Kedar K Murdeshwar

28th Sept,2011 Wednesday

The Unique Indian Stock Market Awards

The Best Stock in Nse - DEN Networks
(Gained 66.38% from the previous Month.Opened at 40.60 this month and is currently Trading at 68.80.If one had invested Rs 50000 one month ago,the amount today would have been  Rs 76927)

The Next Best Stock (Supporting) in NSE - RUSHIL
(Gained 41.24% from the previous month.Opened at 135 this month and is currently trading at 189.90.If one had invested Rs 50000 one month ago it would have been Rs 75913)

The Worst Stock in NSE - Fortis
(Lost -19% from the previous month.Opened at 153.60 this month and is currently trading at 123.90)

The Next Worst Stock in Nse - Sudar
( Lost -16.82% from the previous Month.Opened at 82 this month and is currently trading at 68.25)

Daily Market Update and Overview for 28th Sep 2011 - Kedar K Murdeshwar

27th Sept,2011 Tuesday

Sensex: 16524.03 (472.93 pts up)
Nifty: 4971.25 (135.85 pts up)

Gold (MCX): 26671 (984 pts up)
INR-USD: 49.62

Dow: 11043.83
Nasdaq: 2516.69
CAC: 2955.51
HangSeng: 18130.55
DAX: 5539.62

Overview for Tomorrow (28th Sept,2011)

Nifty opened higher today and closed near its high indicating bullishness.The Upper target levels for Nifty for 28th Sept are 5005,5033 and 5083.
The support levels for tomorrow are 4928,4878 and 4850.

My personal opinion is that If Nifty crosses and Sustains above 4985,then it can reach and touch 5059 and 5109 before coming down fron this level.

All the scrips in Nifty were positive except 3 scrips.Cipla (-0.47%),BPCL (-0.33%) and Sun Pharma (-0.13%).

Good stocks to Buy for tomorrow are

Buy DLF,if it crosses 217.The Intraday upper targets for DLF are 222 and 227
Buy Tata Motors with a Target of 161 and 163
Buy Reliance with a Target of 825.
Buy TCS with a Target of 1065

Daily Market Updates and Tommorow's Overview - Kedar K Murdeshwar

26th Sept,2011 Monday

Today's Update

Nifty:4835.40 (-32.35 pts down)
Sensex:16051.10 (-110.96 pts down)

Gold: 25940 (-776 pts down) (MCX)
INR-USD: 50.54

Dow: 10771.48
Nasdaq: 2483.23
Hanseng:17407.80
CAC:2867.30
FTSE:5093.95

Overview

This week opened weak.

The Intraday support levels for Nifty for 27th Sept,2011 are 4768,4702 and 4647
The Intraday resistance levels for Nifty for 27th Sept,2011 are 4888,4944 and 5009

Nifty may be Volatile tomorow.

4720 is Crucial Bottom Support

Sterlite (-4.53%),Sesa Goa (-4.37%),Reliance Capital (-4.20%) were the Draggers for Nifty
DLF (3.72%),JpAssociate (3.12%),Ranbaxy (2.18%) were positive today in Nifty

Calls For Tomorrow (27th Sept 2011)
Bank Of Baroda:Target 815,Union Bank:Target 252
Buy Ranbaxy only above 483.Target: 488
Buy Mundra Port,Target:155

Bollinger Bands Lets Learn - Kedar K Murdeshwar

26th Sept,2011 Monday

Bollinger Bands:The Bollinger Bands consist of 2 bands,1 upper and 1 lower.These bands are plotted above and below the 20 day Simple Moving Average as these bands are standard Deviation of 2% calculated from the 20 day moving average.

I know the upper part was too technical.Lets keep it simple.Follow some of my strategies given below.

1) Go Long when the price crosses and give a close above the Upper band.
2) Go Long when the Price cuts and gives a close above the 20 day SMA
3) When the previous day's candle has given a close below the lower band and the next candle or the current candle closes above the lower band,Go Long

In the Given Below Daily Chart Of Gold one can see all the 3 strategies

For Further Details and Studying in depth on such strategies mail me at kd_analyst@rediffmail.com

Moving Averages - Kedar K Murdeshwar

26th Sept,2011 Monday

Moving Averages:The simplest and the Crucial Indicator in Technical Analysis is a Moving Average.Moving Averages help is Identifying a Trend,Enter and Exit Signals and act as Resistance and Support.

There are different types of averages like simple,Exponential and weighted averages,which I am not elaborating here.(To save my Training Business!)

The simplest strategies used are Buy, when a Short term Average say (50 days SMA ) crosses a Long Term average (200 day SMA) upwards and Vice versa.

Another Strategy is to Buy, when the price itself crosses either of the averages upwards and vice versa.

In the Given below chart of Nifty,the 50 day SMA had cut the 200 day SMA downwards on 4th march 2011 and the rest is history.The green line is the 50 day SMA and the red line is the 200 day SMA.

In the same manner the 50 day SMA had cut the 200 day SMA upwards on 26th May 2009 and the Nifty Rallied upwards.This can be seen from the given below figure.The green line is the 50 day SMA and the red line is the 200 day SMA

Nifty Morning Update - Kedar K Murdeshwar

26th Sept,2011 Monday

Market Overview as at 11.45 am (Nifty at 11.45 am was 4780)

Nifty looks more bearish as I had predicted on Friday Evening.As of now,I would say 4720 is the crucial support for Nifty and this can be touched either today or Tomorrow.

On the other hand,till date there had been 4 bearish sessions indicating one more bearish session is required to complete the short term downtrend at least as of now on a temporary basis.(based on Fibonacci logic,after a downtrend of 5 days the market can reverse)

I still say that if this reversal happens it can be a 1 or 2 day reversal as the bearishness is spread all over.

The next 1 hour can show some bounce back

Industry Analysis - Distilleries - Kedar K Murdeshwar

24th Sept,2011 Saturday

Weekly Industry Analysis (This week's Industry is Breweries and Distilleries)

EDL:The scrip closed at 91.95.The weekly close was below last week's doji bottom indicating further bearishness.Support levels for next week are 85 and 79.

IFBAgro:This scrip looks good and it closed at 136.05 on NSE.The resistance levels for next week are 143 and 150.The support levels are 128 and 121.

RKDL:This scrip looks positive for next week.The last close was 17.90.

Anil Ambani Group Technical Analysis - Kedar K Murdeshwar

24th Sept,2011 Saturday

Weekly Business House Stock Updates as per Technical Analysis

Anil Ambani Group (Weekly Update)

RBN:The stock closed at 84 this week and has formed a Doji Formation.If the next week closes above the high of this Doji,the stock may rally.Anything below this Doji bottom is dangerous.The major resistance for RBN is 105 in the medium term.The support levels for next week are 80 and 77.The near upper target for next week are 88 and 92.

RCOM: The stock closed at 79 on Friday.The stock looks bearish for the next week.The support levels are 74 and 70.

Rel Capital:The stock closed at 402.Another Doji formation on the weekly chart.The nest week's close above or below the high or Low of this Doji will decide the fate of the stock.The Support levels for next week are 386 and 370.The upper Resistance levels for next week are 421 and 435.

RelInfra:The sock opened below this week and ended lower at 428.40.A complete bearish candle on the weekly chart.Looks Bearish.Support levels for next week are 410 and 396.The Resistance levels are 453 and 470.In the Medium term 517 is a very strong resistance.

Rel Media:This week made a higher top and a higher bottom but ultimately closed down.May move up.The Target levels for next week are 110 and 116.The support levels for next week are 93 and 85.

RNRL:This stock opened with a gap up this week and the gap is unfilled.That means the stock has a major support at its unfilled gap of 41.Again there is a doji formation on the weekly chart indicating the the stock may rally only when it close above the doji high.Upper targets for next week are 44 and 45.This stock is major resistance at 51 in the medium term.

Rpower:This stock has closed above in the last week and also filled the downward gap of previous two weeks.The stock closed at 81.85.The stock looks good for next week and the target levels are 85 and 88.The support levels for next week are 77 and 72

Currency Update and View for Next week - Kedar K Murdeshwar

24th Sept,2011 Saturday

Currency Updates (for the next week)

US Dollar:On 23rdSept it closed at 50.01.I had predicted a Resistance near 49.50 and 49.60,from where the Rupee will appreciate.This time I would like to make a point that Rupee may still depreciate to 50.22 in the coming week.

UK Pound:Rupee has depreciated against the UK Pound and closed at 77.17 on Friday.However,the UK Pound is near to its resistance of 77.48.The Rupee may depreciate to this level in the coming week.

NZ Dollar:The rupee appreciated against NZ Dollar to close at 39.49 on Friday.The rupee may Still appreciate against the NZ Dollar

EURO:The Rupee continues with its Depreciation against Euro and close at 67.57 on Friday.It may depreciate further in the coming week and has a resistance 68.64.

Weak Rupee

23rd Sept,2011 (Friday)

Weak Rupee!How will it Affect Indians (Source Rediff)

If you are an Indian professional and earning in dollars, here is some good news.
You have got a salary rise of eight per cent, in rupee terms, in the past one month.
In other words, if you were earning $2,000 or Rs 91,500, your salary is now Rs 99,120.
 Only, such professionals will also have to pay more tax, warns Homi Mistry, tax partner, Deloitte, Haskins & Sells.

The liability on the additional income will be an additional Rs 2,286 for a person in the highest income tax bracket, as it will be India-sourced income.
On September 22, the rupee closed at 49.56 from 48.35 a dollar a day earlier. And, bankers are not bullish about the rupee in the near future.
The first thing to be hurt will be investments.
Certified financial planner Arnav Pandya says if you hold stocks of companies in oil and gas, infrastructure, fertiliser or the tyre business, your returns will take a hit: These companies will fall when the rupee falls.
They procure their raw material from abroad, for which they now need to pay more

At the same time, if you have exposure to information technology and export-oriented companies, you will benefit because the depreciating rupee improves their top line.
So, too, with investments in mutual funds with foreign exposure, like an Indo-China fund. "Returns dip when converted into rupees. The net asset value of feeder funds is also impacted as you buy units in rupees when the underlying (asset) of the fund is bought in foreign currency," says Pandya.
"Students going abroad may have to pay a higher equated monthly instalment towards an education loan," says S Govindan, general manager, personel banking & operations, Union Bank of India

He says depreciation is factored into education loans, thereby helping students in such situations.
Travelling abroad has become more expensive.
Tour operators say foreign travel cost can easily go up by at least 10 per cent in such a scenario.
A large part of this would depend on your miscellaneous expenses. If you heavily depend on credit card(s) for shopping and dining abroad, you would be better off using cash at such times.

Today's Market Summary and OverView for 26th sept,2011 - Kedar K Murdeshwar

23rd Sept,2011 Friday

Market Update
Sensex: 16162 (-199 points down)
Nifty: 4867.75 (-55.90)
Dollar: 50.01 (1.04)
Gold: 27562 (-353 points down)

Support and Resistance levels for Nifty for Monday (26th Sept,2011)

Support: 4820,4774 and 4719
Resistance/; 4920,4975 and 5021

Nifty ended -1.18% from yesterday and was down -4.30% from last week

Nifty may open down on Monday and may bounce back in the later hours.

The best stocks in NSE today were WSI (15.15%),NagreekExp (14.51%) and Neclife (12.24%)
The worst stocks in NSE today were Sanwaria (-15.75%),UcalFuel (-9.64%) and Apaper (-9.34%).

Nifty Pullers and Draggers
Draggers: TataPower (-5.46%),Hindalco 9-3.95%) and Cairn (-3.47%)
Pullers : Rpower (3.43%),Cipla (2.25%) and Grasim (2.07%)

Buy Calls For Monday: Dynamatech Target 1064///Concor Target 945///Ruchi Soya Target 119///Sterlite Biotech Target 80///Ipca Labs Target 278

GAP RSI THEORY - By Kedar K Murdeshwar

23rd Sept,2011

Strategy Name:Gap Rsi Theory

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is an oscillator that oscillates around overbought zone and oversold zone of 70 and 30.The General strategy as per books is to buy when the RSI exits Oversold zone and Sell/short when the RSI exits Overbought zone.The Default RSI parameters are 14,E,9 RSI.

However in my 10 years of experience I have come across many indicators and RSI has always been one of my favourites.I have developed Many Strategies with RSI which I teach  my students (of course not Free!)

But I would Like to share one of the Strategies with you and that is Gap Rsi Theory

I have changed the parameters of RSI  and made it a smoothed RSI.The Theory is,whenever the smoothed RSI exits the overbought Zone and there is a downward gap,one should short the next day (of course, looking at the market conditions)(Downward Gap means today's high is less than yesterday's low)

The same for going long.Go Long when the Smoothed Rsi exits oversold zone and there is an upwards gap.(Upward gap:Today's low is Greater than yesterday's high)

The RSI parameters are 5,E,3 smoothed by Average E7.Overbought and Oversold zones are 80 and 20

In the given below chart of Hindalco see the downward movement after the formation of this Strategy

International Markets:Morning Update - Kedar K Murdeshwar

23rd Sept,2011 (Friday Morning International Updates)

The International scenario is Bearish.

Dow: 10733

Nasdaq:2455.67

DAX:5164.21

Nikkie:8560

Hangseng:17625.60

FTSE:5041.61

CAC:2781.68

International Commodities Market

Crude: 80.89

Silver:3625

Gold:1745

Market Summary and Overview for Tomorrow - Kedar K Murdeshwar

22nd Sept,2011 (Thursday)

Nifty (Intraday close:4918.10) (-215 points down)
Sensex was down by 704 points and closed at 16361
Gold: 27912 (MCX) Down by 229 points
Dollar:48.96


Nifty opened gap down today.It has given a downward breakout from a symmetrical triangle formation.Nifty can open below tomorrow for touching the level of 4893 a crucial support.

Nifty overview for Tommorw (23rd Sept,2011)

Given below are the Crucial Intraday Levels for Trading.Nifty would try the upper levels given below if its is above 4961 and will try to test the lower levels if is below 4961

The Support levels for Tomorrow are 4863,4809 and 4711
The Resistance levels for Tomorrow are 5016,4907 and 4918

Today's Summary

All the 50 stocks ended negative.
Jpassociates (-9.81%) and Rcom (-8.26%) were the Top Losers today

Overview for Tomorrow (23rd September 2011)

Reliance still looks bearish and can try to touch its crucial support of 759.The stock is currently trading at 780 as on NSE.

TCS looks bearish for Tomorrow.Support levels are 976 and 957
Wipro looks Bearish for Tomorrow and the support levels are 334 and 327

DLF Waiting to touch its support level of 188.Currently trading at 196.50

Cnx Energy - Ascending Triangle - Kedar K Murdeshwar

22nd Sept,2011 Thursday (at 2.00 pm)

CNX Energy:In the Given below Daily Chart of Cnx Energy Chart a Formation of Ascending Triangle can be seen.The energy Chart has given a downward breakout from the ascending Triangle.Currently it is at 7701.
Reliance,NTPC,Cairn and Rpower are top Draggers in this Index Today.(as at 2.00 pm)

BPCL and IOC are Marginally up.

Currency Dollar Outlook - Kedar K Murdeshwar

22nd Sept,2011 Thursday at 10.00 am

As I had predicted,Rupee is depreciating more and I think My prediction given on 19th Sept will be right.Once again I am reminding you all Rupee will not appreciate until and unless it touches 49.60/49.58

Yesterday's Dollar was 48.81.

Nifty Opening at 9.30 am - Kedar K Murdeshwar

22nd Sept,2011 Thursday (at 9.30am)

Nifty has opened wit a gap today.On the daily chart is looks as if Nifty has formed a Symmetrical Triangle. (Joining a trendline from the highs of 5th Aug and 8th Sept and the lows of 26th Aug and 14th Sept).

I think Nifty will try to take a support at this upward sloping trendline in Intraday.Nifty has an immediate Intraday Support at 5034.Lets hope if Bounces back from here.The next Support is 5020.

Nifty and Nifty stocks Overview for tomorow - Kedar K Murdeshwar

21st Sept,2011 (Wednesday)

Nifty (Intraday Close:5128.75)
Sensex(Intraday Close:17052.14)


Nifty Closed below today at 5128.75 -11 points down from previous close.Nifty could not break above the steepline of Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern.Nifty still looks bearish.I still maintain that even if tomorrow Nifty is able to cross above the Steep Line and comfortably close.If this does not happen,then the Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern will fail.

Crucial level to watch for Nifty is 5135.If nifty is hovering around the following levels then given below are the

Support Levels for Tomorrow for Nifty: 5102 and 5077
Resistance levels for Tomorrow for Nifty: 5161 and 5194

Tomorrow Overview of Stocks for 22nd Sep,2011

Axis Bank, as per my prediction went up today.Axis bank may still rise if it is above 1159 tomorrow.

Hero Honda looks Bearish tomorrow.

Infosys,Rel Capital and IDFC are showing doji formation that is indecision.

PowerGrid may jump up tomorrow if it is above 99 tomorrow.

Sesa Goa is maintain its support of 217 for last one week.Maybe its waiting for a correct signal to shoot up

Bank Index and Bank Stocks - Kedar K Murdeshwar

21st September,2011 posted at 2.45 pm (During Market Hours)

Bank Index and Bank Stock today: Viewers who are new can visit my earlier blog posted on 16th september 2011.I had predicted the upmove and the Index is respecting my views.Today the entire market is down but the Bank stocks are up thanks to my prediction of Bank Index.

The CNX Bank index has crossed the neckline of inverse head & shoulders pattern yesterday on 20th September 2011.The result is in front of all of us.Yesterday Cnx Bank closed at 9812.70.

Today it touched a high of 9962.I hope all my viewers remember my prediction of Bank Index touching the target of 10300 in the coming days.

Bank Of Baroda and ICICI Bank and SBI are the front runners.

PNB is the only loser.

Bearish Engufing - Lets Learn - Kedar K Murdeshwar

21st Sept,2011

Bearish Engulfing:This is a Bearish pattern occurring in an uptrend.A green candle is completely engulfed by a Big red candle.The logic behind this formation is simple.After a bearish day,the next day the market opens higher but cannot sustain the rally and close below yesterdays low.

This pattern must be formed after a huge upward rally.the formation of this pattern in a flat market loses its charm.One can see it as a Mirror Image of Bullish Harami.

In the given below daily chart of SBI a Bearish Engulfing can be seen and also the downfall after that.

For more Information mail me on kd_analyst@rediffmail.com

Bullish Harami - Lets Learn - Kedar K Murdeshwar

21st Sept,2011

Bullish Harami:In a downtrend a Green candle appears after a Red Candle in such a way that the Green Candle's body is completely contained in the Red Candle's body.

It's a 2 candle pattern and a reversal pattern.One has to buy on the 3rd candle after the first 2 candles.The average traded price of the 2nd green candle can be considered as the entry stop loss.

The success ratio of this candle pattern is 65% to 70%

In the Given below  Daily chart of JP associates,one can see a Bullish Harami Pattern and the stock rallied upwards after this candle formation.

For more details mail me on kd_analyst@rediffmail.com

Nifty over view for 21st September - By Kedar K Murdeshwar

20th Sept,2011

Nifty:Intraday close was 5148.90.As I had predicted earlier Nifty has completed an Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern on the daily chart waiting for an upward breakout.If this happens,Nifty will straight away move up before stopping at 5323.The Intraday support levcels for Nifty are 5072 and 4996.

Axis Bank:Buy above 1130 and looks good.Target is 1160.

Bharti Airtel looks Good as the smoothened rsi is giving a buy signal.Buy above 391 and target 395/396.

Dr Reddy:Can be a good buy not only for Intraday but also for 2-3 days.Target for Tommorow 1548 and Target for 2-3 days 1556.

Hindalco:One can buy tommorow if above 148.Target for tommorow is 153.Target for 2-3 days is 163 on the upside

Hind Unilever:Is on the verge of Forming Cup and Handle formation and can rally up if it breaks above 346.Then the target can be 356

Nifty Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern - Kedar K Murdeshwar

20th Sept,2011

Nifty is on the verge of completing the Inverted Head & shoulder Pattern.Now we have to just wait to see whether Nifti will give a close above the Neckline in order to confirm the Inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern.

See the Nifty Chart below as on today at 3.15 pm

Pharma stocks Overview:Some pills are sweet,others Bitter - Kedar K Murdeshwar

20thSept,2011

PHARMA Industry (overview) (Updated at 10.15 am)

Biocon:At the Current level of 336 looks good.It has crossed the previous days DOJI high.One should maintain a buy above the level of 334.This Stock van move upwards and hit a target of 350 in the coming days.But one should immidiatel exit or reverse the position if this stock gives a close below 330.

Cipla:the movement looks good but may face ressistance at 288.If it crosses 288,its next target is 310.At the current price of 280 one can expect the stock to move up.Cipla can be worst if it close below 274.be cautious at this level.

Divi's labs:No comments

Glaxo:Too Volatile with less volume.

Glenmark Pharma:This stock looks good if gives a close above 330 this week.The target is 340 for the coming days.But still i amnot so positive on this stock as of now.

Lupin:Dont enter now.

Ranbaxy:Ranbacy looks Bearish.477 is the major support.Any close below this level will pull down this stock.A close above 492 can take the stock to reach the level of 520.

SunPharma:My view is Bearish on this stock.

Nifty Outlook - By Kedar K Murdeshwar

Date:19th Sept,2011

Nifty (Intraday Close:5032.80)- Nifty was down -1.01% or 51 points down as expected.Nifty may move down further before getting a cushion and support at 4985.If during the trading hours Nifty comfortably takes support from here,it can bounce back.So please watch this level of 4985 tommorow.

But Friends if any selling pressur forces Nifty to breach down this level os 4985,one could see Nifty touching the levels of 4932 and 4893 in the coming 2 days.

However,as I had predicted in my earlier Blof Nifty is just lying marginally above its support of 5030.Any upward push by this crucial Intraday support level may push Nifty up to the level of 5076 or maximum 5090.(not More than That)

It has to be noted that the Volumes were less today.

Axis Bank Looks Bearish For Tommorow at the cmp of 1099.

Buy LIC Housing Finance if its above the level of 216.75.This stock can hit the target of 223 in coming days.

Be Cautious about Maruti.It has near about formed a double top.May face ressistanmce at 1149 and come down.

Mundra Port looks good for Buying at the cmp of 153.50.Target for Tommorow 156 and 158

Asahi India looks agood at Current level of 71.3.This scrip can hit a target of 76 in the coming 2 days.

Buy Bajaj Finance if its above 638.Tommorow's target is 645.

for further details mail me on kd_analyst@rediffmail.com

Currency Outlook - Kedar K Murdeshwar

Date:19thSept,2011

The weekly chart of Dollar in terms of Indian rupees show that the Rupee might depriciate more.It may reach to a level of 49.58 in the near future.From here I think that Ruppe may appreciate.(Good news for Crude Importers.And hope they roll back the petrol prices!!)

If my analysis is right (as always!!),I expect the Rupee to appreciate more and touch the level of 46 very soon.(and please dont try to link my relations with RBI governer now!!)Its purely based on Technical Analysis.

euro: Euro is appreciating against Rupee.It may face a stiff ressistance at 68.64.

For Further Details mail me at kd_analyst@rediffmail.com

Evening Star:Kedar K Murdeshwar

Date:19th Sept,2011

EVENING STAR

Evening Star is three candle Bearish pattern.A formation of this pattern at the top is an indication ,that the market may move down.Its a rare pattern.

The Formation:After a Huge Green (bullish) candle is formed,the next day market opens up with a gap and again closes up with a green candle.On the 3rd day however,if the market opens down with a gap and ends as a red candle,the complete formation is called Evening Star.

On the fourth day, one can expect the market to go in a bearish mode for 1-2 weeks if the fourth day opens down.

In the given below chart of AXIS bank.one can notice an evening Star pattern formed in the last week of july and 1st week of August 2011.

For more details mail me on kd_analyst@rediffmail.com

INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDERS - BY KEDAR K MURDESHWAR

Date:19th September 2011

INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDERS

Inverted Head&Shoulders is a Bullish pattern and the Price can give a major upward Breakout if it crosses the Neckline.The Breakout would be much better if it's with huge volumes.

In a Downfall,the Index tries to bounce back but rises up to a certain level with lesser volumes and comes down to make a lower bottom than the previous one.

Now after making this new bottom the Index again rises with huge volumes indicating buying presure.It reaches upto a Certain level and again starts falling down but this time with less volumes indicating selling pressure drying up.This down fall make a new bottom but but higher than the earlier bottom.

Now if the Index rises again from the higher bottom and crosses the neckline drawn joining the 1st leg of the head and the 2nd leg of the head it will definitely go for an upward breakout.

A Breakout above 5150 in the current scenario can push the Nifty to achive a target of 5650 in the near future.The level of 5329 can play a big hurdle in achiving the upper traget of 5650.

As of now The Nifty is down as I had predicted earlier.

The Invereted Head & Shoulders can be seen from the above figure.

For Detailed Description on Inverted Head & Shouldrs mail on kd_analyst@rediffmail.com

Commodity Overview (Gold and Silver) - Kedar K Murdeshwar

Everyone is running after Gold as its the best bet when th eequity markets are down and the best asset class that can beat inflation.

Just because Gold is going one way,its not right to say that now gold will be 50000.one needs to have a base for this.Technically speaking if one observes,Gold is moving in a flat range since last few days.As far as Gold stays above 27095 its good to be invested in gold.If the level is braeched downsde than gold can come down till the level of 25000.

Still,I maintain that the upward rally is expected and Gold can touch the levels of 29430,if it crosses 28100.This is a mediumterm view.The 7 days exponential average which was steeply moving up looks flat indicating some selling pressure.

Though on a weekly basis Gold was down -1.39% on MCX,the weekly rising bottoms in Gold show a positive sign.Again,there would be some festive season like Navratri and Diwali coming which will increase the demand for Gold on the domestic front.Again,the current shraddh period,there is no buying in gold which is hampering the demand for gold.This infact is reflected in the charts

Silver on the daily chart is in the formation of ascending Triangle and looks to move up.The friday's close of Silver on MCX was 64629.Silver has a very very STRONG ressistance at 70000.Be watchful.Silver is facing a constant ressistanec at 66064.

An Investor Speaks - by Kedar K Murdeshwar

Investment:It is often said that when your short term Trading fails,it becomes a long term investment.
The journey of an investor is not straight.Infact is quite circular in fashion.You start up a as a layman investing carefully in the market.Next,you start trading.(Just to prove that now you are confident).No sooner you start making profits,the law of diminishing marginal utility sets in.(The more you trade,the less you get).And finally you get an advice (mostly from your inner soul),that markets are good for long term investment.
Now again at this final stage (as a investor,not the stage of my life!),I have started questioning myself, that if I had to stay invested only for so long,then there are much safer options such as mutual Funds,LIC,Fixed Deposits,PPF etc.I should have some asset class that is more liquid asset that will give me more quick returns.Suddenly I get an answer from my soul.(The same soul which advised me earlier),that I should shift to trading.
And Now I am back as an Investor turned Trader (something like,actor turned politician OR cricketer turned actor).
OOPs!!! The Opening Market bell has just rung.See You after 3.30 pm.
KD  (Kedar Murdeshwar)

The Banking Industry Overview as per Technical Analysis by Kedar Murdeshwar

The CNX Bank chart has stood still at 9720 as if its resting and gathering energy for an upward breakout.Ya its true.If CNX Bank Index is able to cross 9825 there are positive signs that the CNX bank Index will touch 10300.9 (Of course before playing with the ressistance of 9975.

I dont think this Index will goe below 9647,its major support.Now if my prediction gets right,then one can expect the big Banks to rise as ultimately yhey would be the ones to bring this rally for Bank Index.The Cnx Bank Index was up 0.43% from Last week.

Be careful and cautious of Kotak Bank.If it Stays below 474 on Monday it can still go down and touch 450 before bouncing back.

SBI:Looks good as it has just crossed it Ressistanec of 1940 and given a close at 1945.This sounds good.And SBI can be one of the banks to pull this index up.

Axis Bank:has alraedy gained much in the last week but still has to room to go up atleast till 1160.The Friday's close was 1133 on NSE.

bank Of Baroda is one such bank that can contribute to the upward movement of the CNX bank Index.At the current CMP of 787 it looks good and positive.Upper Target for Monday is 784 and Support is 766.

Bank of India and Canara Bank are still not that bullish.

The Ressistance faced by ICICI bank at 893 can play a spoilsport.The CMP of ICICI bank is 883.90 on NSE.Still its good as long as it stays above 884.

Types of people in Stock market by Kedar K Murdeshwar

In my 10 years of experience in Stock Market as a Technical Analyst,i came across several investors and traders.Every individual in a stock market cant be categorized in differnt types.All the types are just my hypothetical characters which I have tried to pen down with my exeprience.

Type A:This trader is a heavy trader.His ambition for every day is to trade trade and trade.he buys lots of nifty and Bank Nifty along with Future Stocks.If asked "does he trade in equity",he will raise an eybrow and stare at the person asking the question as if he has been insulted."I trade in Futures BOSS"comes an arrogant answer.If we ask him "dont you trade in options".quick come the answer"Options mein voulume nahi hai boss".(Angoor khatte hai,remember!)

Type B:"I trade in equity Boss,Derivatives trading is all of Manipulation yaar.I stay away from it".(The actual reason is that this trader had lost a sizeable amount of money.

Type C:These trader trade in such stocks that one my never have heard of.(not event the trader himself).Resaon they are scared of pumping large amount of money in SBI,TCS,Infosys etc

Type D:These Traders keep on talking to their friends and relatives "reliance dekha,Lovable dekha,Jubiliant to 52 week high maara"Welcome to the Trader D type also called by me as Bolbachhans.Investment Rs 50 and baatein 1cr ki

Type E:Option trader.talks only about US martkets and Europe matkets.As if options are meant for only Americans and Europeans.Asks others about delta gama,beta,theta and Black scholes formula but he himself trades option as if they are not options but stocks.Like buy a call at 50 and sell at Ption at 52.Ho gaya option.(Option trading is too vast my dear.Its nout just buy and sell.Brush up you knowledge)

Type F:Traders who trade in only one stock as if they are very loyal to that stock

Type G: Traders who watch dow jones and nasdaq more,but fail to understand the Indian markets and then trade just to make losses.

Trader H:Discilplined Traders who shut down their trading machines as soon as they book their profits book their losses.

Investors:Most of them are Traders turned Investors.They talk more on the economy but dont trade or invest personally.

Nifty and Nifty Stocks by Kedar Murdeshwar

Nifty gave an Intraday Close at 5085.95.Though Nifty was up by 10.25 points at 3.30,the days session was down.Nifty had opened at 5123.35 and closed at 5085.95.

As per me Nifty may be bearish on Monday.I am still firm on my view that in the short term the srtong ressistance levels for Nifty are 5229 and 5323.

Tommorow if Nifty sustains above 5099,then it can touch the levels of 5130 and 5174 before coming down.Or else if Nifty is below 5099,it can try to take support at 5054 and 5023.

Kotak bank:Short sell tommorow if below 474.The Targts is 465 and then 458.

Buy Powergrid:Looks good for 2-3 days.Buy only if above 98.50.Target is 104 in the coming 3 days.

SBI:Looks good above 1931 for 2-3 days.Target for 3 days is 2047

TCS:Short for Tommorow if below 1054 and target is 1000.


Report By Kedar K Murdeshwar
The Analyst with a Difference

RBI set to hike rates (NEWS)

With inflation moving closer to the double-digit mark, bankers expect the Reserve Bank to increase its key policy rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming policy review on Friday.

As long as inflation does not decline to a significant level, the Reserve Bank of India would continue its tight monetary stance.


The general view is that RBI would go in for another rate hike as inflation is hovering around the double-digit mark, Indian Overseas Bank chairman and managing director M Narendra told PTI.
"I think there would be some rate hike this week and could be some more in October policy if inflationary expectations are not anchored," he said.
RBI, which is scheduled to review interest rate policy again on September 16, faces a dilemma of sorts as the Indian economy is confronted with high inflation and sliding growth.

WHO SAYS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOSENT WORK!!!MUST READ

Scrip Name (Pipavav,nse code:(N17444)
Strategy 1:DOJI
Doji on 22/08/2011 in Pipavav (high:62.65)
next day close above precious day high.Next day the close is 63.30.
Buy on the next day and the rest his history
The News:The news regarding Pipavav merger with Mazgaon Dock to build warships for the Indian Navy was announced on Monday (12th September,2011) during market hours
Strategy 2:SUPER TREND
The pipavav scrip gave a close above supertrend on 30/08/2011 and the scrip shooted like anything.Still the Merger news was communicated on Monday 12th September 2011 during Market hours.
TARGET:92.15 was the target as per retracement drawn from 20/04/2011 (high) to 22/08/2011 (low).92.15 is nothing but the 100% bounce back from the bottom to the top most figure of 92.15
Needless to say TECHNICAL ANALYIS WORKS,one should have a vision,courage,discipline and patience to folow it.

Todays Nifty Updates and Overview for Tommorow

Nifty Opened on a lower note today.However,it did not cross yesterday's low and managed to pull back.

5046 is the strong ressitance which will try to restrict Nify in Intraday session tommorow.Once if Nifty gice  acomfortable cole tommorow above this level of 5046,one may expect Nifty to rise up 5195 where Nifty will again face a Strong Ressistance in the coming Days.One can still be careful at 5135 in the coming days.